Point totals at the halfway point—what are the prospects of moving forward

 Point totals at the halfway point—what are the prospects of moving forward

 

Has a nine-point squad ever missed the round of 16? Has anyone with a score of 0 ever succeeded? Do you have a 50/50 chance after four points? The truth is on UEFA.com.
Teams frequently reach the midpoint of the UEFA Champions League group stage without a victory, but they should not rule out advancing to the last 16.

In their first three games of the 2018–19 season, Tottenham only earned one point, yet they still advanced to the final. After losing their first three games, debutants Atalanta found themselves with even more work to do the following season. However, they stormed down the home stretch to finish second in their group. However, the Italian team's turnaround is an anomaly when the data is analyzed, so beware.
Every season since the current format's introduction in 2003/04 has been examined to determine what the past has to say about each team's hopes of making the last 16.

Points through elimination after Matchday 3

Points after Matchday 3   Through      Eliminated      % Through

0 1 53 2%

1 8 82 9%

2 5 26 16%

3 22 76 22%

4 49 53 48%

5 22 9 71%

6 81 17 83%

7 65 4 94%

9 66 0 100%

Finding out: Why hope is not lost

For clubs still trying to get going at the midway point, Atlanta is a glimmer of optimism. 54 teams found themselves in that unfortunate situation before this season; the only team to escape it was the Italian squad.
Atalanta advanced to the quarterfinals in the 2019-20 season, but two teams have advanced further after going winless in their first three games. While Tottenham went one better in 2018/19, reaching the final before falling to the Reds in Madrid, Liverpool did one better in 2007/08, making it to the semifinals.

Teams that have advanced despite not winning any of their opening three games

0 points: Atlanta (2019–20)

Tottenham (2018–19), Gent (2015–16), Galatasaray (2012–13), Panathinaikos (2008–09), Liverpool (2007–08), Bremen (2005–06), Porto (2004–05), and Arsenal (2003–2004) all have 1 point.

2 points: Celta Vigo (2003/04), Lille (2021/22), Roma (2015/16), Man City (2014/15), and Stuttgart (2009/10).

Leverkusen (3 points, 2016–17)
Keeping an eye on your back: Almost no room for complacency
Let's get started, shall we? After Matchday 3, 66 teams had a 100% record, and every single one of them ultimately placed in the top two.

Though not far behind, seven points are no assurance. Since 2003/04, Porto (2015/16), Rangers (2007/08), Marseille (2007/08), and CSKA Moskva (2006/07) are the only four clubs to have seven points at the halfway point and not advance to the knockout stages. Even though the end was in sight, the Porto team lost its final three games before winning their fourth.

Nothing is truly over until it is.